1
Prior baseline
A private temporal baseline estimates the starting probability before live OSINT signals are applied.
可审计预测系统
我们如何把事件信号转化为旅行决策概率
OsintRai 的预测页不是新闻摘要，也不是纯价格推荐。系统先建立时间序列先验，再用 OSINT、签证政策、航线变化、预测市场和需求价格信号更新概率，并用已解析事件的 Brier Score 做持续校准。商业推荐和联盟链接不进入证据链。
2
Evidence update
Each signal is mapped to a likelihood weight: prediction markets, government policy changes, route advisories, price moves and demand shifts.
3
Posterior probability
Bayesian updating converts the prior and evidence weights into the current probability shown on prediction pages.
4
Calibration audit
Resolved events are scored with Brier Score. Lower scores mean better calibrated forecasts and fewer overconfident errors.