1
Prior baseline
A private temporal baseline estimates the starting probability before live OSINT signals are applied.
AUDITABLE FORECASTING SYSTEM
How OsintRai turns world signals into travel decision probabilities
OsintRai prediction pages are not news summaries or generic travel recommendations. The system starts with a temporal prior, updates it with OSINT, visa policy, route, prediction-market, demand and price signals, then audits calibration with Brier Score on resolved events. Commercial recommendations and affiliate placements never enter the evidence chain.
2
Evidence update
Each signal is mapped to a likelihood weight: prediction markets, government policy changes, route advisories, price moves and demand shifts.
3
Posterior probability
Bayesian updating converts the prior and evidence weights into the current probability shown on prediction pages.
4
Calibration audit
Resolved events are scored with Brier Score. Lower scores mean better calibrated forecasts and fewer overconfident errors.